A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages
Abstract Several integrated assessment studies have concluded that future learning about the uncertainties involved in climate change has a considerable effect on welfare but only a small effect on optimal short-term emissions. In other words, learning is important but anticipation of learning is not. We confirm this result in the integrated assessment model “model of investment and technological development” for learning about climate sensitivity and climate damages. If learning about an irreversible threshold is included, though, we show that anticipation can become crucial both in terms of necessary adjustments of pre-learning emissions and resulting welfare gains. We specify conditions on the time of learning and the threshold characteristic, for which this is the case. They can be summarized as a narrow “anticipation window.”
Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages
Abstract Several integrated assessment studies have concluded that future learning about the uncertainties involved in climate change has a considerable effect on welfare but only a small effect on optimal short-term emissions. In other words, learning is important but anticipation of learning is not. We confirm this result in the integrated assessment model “model of investment and technological development” for learning about climate sensitivity and climate damages. If learning about an irreversible threshold is included, though, we show that anticipation can become crucial both in terms of necessary adjustments of pre-learning emissions and resulting welfare gains. We specify conditions on the time of learning and the threshold characteristic, for which this is the case. They can be summarized as a narrow “anticipation window.”
Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages
Lorenz, Alexander (author) / Schmidt, Matthias G. W. (author) / Kriegler, Elmar (author) / Held, Hermann (author)
Environmental Modeling & Assessment ; 17 ; 163-175
2011-07-28
13 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages
| Online Contents | 2011
| ASCE | 2016
| British Library Online Contents | 2011