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Reliability of Hydraulic Structures Possessing Random Loading and Resistance
Abstract The safety-threatening external loading from geophysical and nongeophysical sources and the capacity or resistance of a hydraulic structure both vary randomly in time and space. In the traditional analysis of the risk of a hydraulic structure, only the hydrologic factors are taken into consideration. Alternately, a safety factor could be arbitrarily assigned in order to provide some degree of protection against our ignorance. These approaches either provide us a partial view of the risk or are empirical and arbitrary. A true reliability evaluation cannot be accomplished unless all the factors are accounted for and properly analyzed and combined. At the other extreme, the method of direct integration for risk evaluation which would give exact, true reliability evaluation requires knowing the exact probability distribution of each of all the factors. This requirement is rarely satisfied in real situations. In this presentation a number of approximate techniques that could provide an estimate of the system reliability of a hydraulic structure are briefly reviewed. Emphasis is then placed on the mean-value first-order second-moment method and the advanced first-order method. These two methods, when applied conjunctively with a fault tree or event tree, provide a formal, albeit approximate, framework for considering quantitatively all the factors that influence total system reliability. It also gives a formal structure to combine quantitatively the risks evaluated separately by different hydrologic, hydraulic, geotechnical, structural and other specialists.
Reliability of Hydraulic Structures Possessing Random Loading and Resistance
Abstract The safety-threatening external loading from geophysical and nongeophysical sources and the capacity or resistance of a hydraulic structure both vary randomly in time and space. In the traditional analysis of the risk of a hydraulic structure, only the hydrologic factors are taken into consideration. Alternately, a safety factor could be arbitrarily assigned in order to provide some degree of protection against our ignorance. These approaches either provide us a partial view of the risk or are empirical and arbitrary. A true reliability evaluation cannot be accomplished unless all the factors are accounted for and properly analyzed and combined. At the other extreme, the method of direct integration for risk evaluation which would give exact, true reliability evaluation requires knowing the exact probability distribution of each of all the factors. This requirement is rarely satisfied in real situations. In this presentation a number of approximate techniques that could provide an estimate of the system reliability of a hydraulic structure are briefly reviewed. Emphasis is then placed on the mean-value first-order second-moment method and the advanced first-order method. These two methods, when applied conjunctively with a fault tree or event tree, provide a formal, albeit approximate, framework for considering quantitatively all the factors that influence total system reliability. It also gives a formal structure to combine quantitatively the risks evaluated separately by different hydrologic, hydraulic, geotechnical, structural and other specialists.
Reliability of Hydraulic Structures Possessing Random Loading and Resistance
Yen, Ben Chie (author)
1987-01-01
19 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
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