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Bivariate Drought Risk Assessment for Water Planning Using Copula Function in Balochistan
Balochistan province is highly drought-prone and affected by almost every drought in Pakistan. This study is conducted to evaluate and project drought for the planning of water resources in Baluchistan, Pakistan. Drought characteristics of duration and severity were extracted from the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Statistical tools showed a high positive correlation and skewed nature between drought duration and severity. The sites were checked for identical drought conditions through homogeneity measures. Best-fitted regional probability distributions were selected for both drought characteristics and transformed into uniformly distributed values over [0, 1]. The bivariate Gumbel-Hougaard (G-H) copula function was selected for joint and conditional drought projections. The G-H copula function has the property to measure upper tail dependence which is highly important for measuring extreme drought conditions. Three types of joint and two types of conditional drought projections were found numerically and graphically using selected years of return periods. Contour lines were drawn for possible combinations of drought duration and severity to show the drought variability within the region. According to projections, the drought duration and severity increase with the increase in return periods. Conditional projections have high values of severity (or duration) return periods because drought at a fixed duration (or severity) takes a long time to occur. The results show changes in drought conditions and might help in drought mitigation and water planning in Balochistan, Pakistan. There is no such detailed study of drought risk assessment in the area. This effort will fill the research gap in the existing literature in the study area.
Bivariate Drought Risk Assessment for Water Planning Using Copula Function in Balochistan
Balochistan province is highly drought-prone and affected by almost every drought in Pakistan. This study is conducted to evaluate and project drought for the planning of water resources in Baluchistan, Pakistan. Drought characteristics of duration and severity were extracted from the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Statistical tools showed a high positive correlation and skewed nature between drought duration and severity. The sites were checked for identical drought conditions through homogeneity measures. Best-fitted regional probability distributions were selected for both drought characteristics and transformed into uniformly distributed values over [0, 1]. The bivariate Gumbel-Hougaard (G-H) copula function was selected for joint and conditional drought projections. The G-H copula function has the property to measure upper tail dependence which is highly important for measuring extreme drought conditions. Three types of joint and two types of conditional drought projections were found numerically and graphically using selected years of return periods. Contour lines were drawn for possible combinations of drought duration and severity to show the drought variability within the region. According to projections, the drought duration and severity increase with the increase in return periods. Conditional projections have high values of severity (or duration) return periods because drought at a fixed duration (or severity) takes a long time to occur. The results show changes in drought conditions and might help in drought mitigation and water planning in Balochistan, Pakistan. There is no such detailed study of drought risk assessment in the area. This effort will fill the research gap in the existing literature in the study area.
Bivariate Drought Risk Assessment for Water Planning Using Copula Function in Balochistan
Environ Model Assess
Ullah, Hamd (author) / Akbar, Muhammad (author)
Environmental Modeling & Assessment ; 28 ; 447-464
2023-06-01
18 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Gumbel-Hougaard copula , SPI , Contour lines , Kendall return periods , Joint return periods , Upper tail dependence Environment , Math. Appl. in Environmental Science , Mathematical Modeling and Industrial Mathematics , Operations Research/Decision Theory , Applications of Mathematics , Earth and Environmental Science
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