A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Investigating 2019 Flash Flood of Shiraz, Iran, and Estimating Return Levels with Historic RCMs
Shiraz flash flood of March 25, 2019, at the eve of Iranian New Year had 21 fatalities and 164 injured. Lack of methodologies to estimate design discharges in ungauged catchments has contributed to the inadequate design of the flood control infrastructure. Here, we make a physically informed conceptual model of the catchment to estimate the flood discharges associated with return periods used in hydrological designs. Lack of historical precipitation and temperature data is compensated for with the application of historic regional climate models (RCMs) from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) ensemble. Model consists of eleven sub-catchments (SOCONT basin model) and four river elements (kinematic wave flow routing) and is calibrated to reproduce the flood event. Generalized extreme value theory is used to estimate return levels for the flood based on the model outputs for 12 simulations with RCM as climatic drivers. Return level of 2019 flash flood with estimated discharge of 55 m3/s is about 75 years. Flash flood discharge with a return period of 100 years is estimated to be 95 m3/s which is much higher than capacity of the pipe installed in the expressway. The methodology provided here overcomes lack of data in ungauged catchments susceptible for flash floods. Peak discharge and peak arrival time are shown to be effective as constrains for model construction. The results show that the current infrastructure is not adequate for the flood control and should be augmented and expanded to properly facilitate flood flow discharge from the catchment.
Investigating 2019 Flash Flood of Shiraz, Iran, and Estimating Return Levels with Historic RCMs
Shiraz flash flood of March 25, 2019, at the eve of Iranian New Year had 21 fatalities and 164 injured. Lack of methodologies to estimate design discharges in ungauged catchments has contributed to the inadequate design of the flood control infrastructure. Here, we make a physically informed conceptual model of the catchment to estimate the flood discharges associated with return periods used in hydrological designs. Lack of historical precipitation and temperature data is compensated for with the application of historic regional climate models (RCMs) from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) ensemble. Model consists of eleven sub-catchments (SOCONT basin model) and four river elements (kinematic wave flow routing) and is calibrated to reproduce the flood event. Generalized extreme value theory is used to estimate return levels for the flood based on the model outputs for 12 simulations with RCM as climatic drivers. Return level of 2019 flash flood with estimated discharge of 55 m3/s is about 75 years. Flash flood discharge with a return period of 100 years is estimated to be 95 m3/s which is much higher than capacity of the pipe installed in the expressway. The methodology provided here overcomes lack of data in ungauged catchments susceptible for flash floods. Peak discharge and peak arrival time are shown to be effective as constrains for model construction. The results show that the current infrastructure is not adequate for the flood control and should be augmented and expanded to properly facilitate flood flow discharge from the catchment.
Investigating 2019 Flash Flood of Shiraz, Iran, and Estimating Return Levels with Historic RCMs
Iran J Sci Technol Trans Civ Eng
Norouzi Moghanjoghi, Karim (author) / Fakhraei, Habibollah (author) / Asadi-Aghbolaghi, Mahdi (author)
2023-02-01
18 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English