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Uncertainty characterization, propagation, and evaluation in debris flow run-out hazard assessment
Uncertainty in debris flow run-out hazard assessment P. Zeng et al.
https://orcid.org/http://orcid.org/0009-0004-6426-3851
Debris flows pose severe threats as natural disasters, potentially resulting in extensive casualties and property damage. Consequently, effectively predicting the potential impact range of these debris flows is essential. Unfortunately, existing studies seldom consider the uncertainties of input parameters or their effects on prediction outcomes. To address this issue, we propose a probabilistic framework for predicting the debris flow impact range, blending the dynamic numerical model with the reliability method. The FLO-2D numerical model was utilized to simulate the debris flow run-out process, and a parameter database was created to collect statistical data on the model’s input parameters. We efficiently calculated the probability density function of the maximum flow depth using the probability density evolution method. This utilization allowed us to assess the likelihood of the maximum flow depth exceeding a specified threshold value for each grid cell. Subsequently, we created a hazard zoning map based on exceedance probability. To evaluate the feasibility of our proposed methodology, we conducted case studies in the Longde and Chenghuangmiao Gullies, located in Sichuan Province, China. The findings revealed that the actual debris flow impact ranges mostly align with high (exceedance probability ranging from 10% to 50%) and extremely high (exceedance probability > 50%) hazard zones. This alignment confirms the reliability of our proposed methodology. Our research emphasizes the significance of accounting for uncertainties in predicting debris flow run-out and presents a probabilistic framework as an alternative to traditional deterministic hazard zoning.
Uncertainty characterization, propagation, and evaluation in debris flow run-out hazard assessment
Uncertainty in debris flow run-out hazard assessment P. Zeng et al.
https://orcid.org/http://orcid.org/0009-0004-6426-3851
Debris flows pose severe threats as natural disasters, potentially resulting in extensive casualties and property damage. Consequently, effectively predicting the potential impact range of these debris flows is essential. Unfortunately, existing studies seldom consider the uncertainties of input parameters or their effects on prediction outcomes. To address this issue, we propose a probabilistic framework for predicting the debris flow impact range, blending the dynamic numerical model with the reliability method. The FLO-2D numerical model was utilized to simulate the debris flow run-out process, and a parameter database was created to collect statistical data on the model’s input parameters. We efficiently calculated the probability density function of the maximum flow depth using the probability density evolution method. This utilization allowed us to assess the likelihood of the maximum flow depth exceeding a specified threshold value for each grid cell. Subsequently, we created a hazard zoning map based on exceedance probability. To evaluate the feasibility of our proposed methodology, we conducted case studies in the Longde and Chenghuangmiao Gullies, located in Sichuan Province, China. The findings revealed that the actual debris flow impact ranges mostly align with high (exceedance probability ranging from 10% to 50%) and extremely high (exceedance probability > 50%) hazard zones. This alignment confirms the reliability of our proposed methodology. Our research emphasizes the significance of accounting for uncertainties in predicting debris flow run-out and presents a probabilistic framework as an alternative to traditional deterministic hazard zoning.
Uncertainty characterization, propagation, and evaluation in debris flow run-out hazard assessment
Uncertainty in debris flow run-out hazard assessment P. Zeng et al.
https://orcid.org/http://orcid.org/0009-0004-6426-3851
Debris flows pose severe threats as natural disasters, potentially resulting in extensive casualties and property damage. Consequently, effectively predicting the potential impact range of these debris flows is essential. Unfortunately, existing studies seldom consider the uncertainties of input parameters or their effects on prediction outcomes. To address this issue, we propose a probabilistic framework for predicting the debris flow impact range, blending the dynamic numerical model with the reliability method. The FLO-2D numerical model was utilized to simulate the debris flow run-out process, and a parameter database was created to collect statistical data on the model’s input parameters. We efficiently calculated the probability density function of the maximum flow depth using the probability density evolution method. This utilization allowed us to assess the likelihood of the maximum flow depth exceeding a specified threshold value for each grid cell. Subsequently, we created a hazard zoning map based on exceedance probability. To evaluate the feasibility of our proposed methodology, we conducted case studies in the Longde and Chenghuangmiao Gullies, located in Sichuan Province, China. The findings revealed that the actual debris flow impact ranges mostly align with high (exceedance probability ranging from 10% to 50%) and extremely high (exceedance probability > 50%) hazard zones. This alignment confirms the reliability of our proposed methodology. Our research emphasizes the significance of accounting for uncertainties in predicting debris flow run-out and presents a probabilistic framework as an alternative to traditional deterministic hazard zoning.
Uncertainty characterization, propagation, and evaluation in debris flow run-out hazard assessment
Uncertainty in debris flow run-out hazard assessment P. Zeng et al.
Landslides
Zeng, Peng (author) / Chen, Junlong (author) / Chang, Ming (author) / Sun, Xiaoping (author) / Li, Tianbin (author)
Landslides ; 22 ; 1275-1290
2025-04-01
16 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Uncertainty characterization, propagation, and evaluation in debris flow run-out hazard assessment
| Springer Verlag | 2025
Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment
| Online Contents | 2008
Evaluation of approaches to calculate debris-flow parameters for hazard assessment
| British Library Online Contents | 2008