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Projection of Drought Indices Trend over the Lower Bundelkhand Region in Central India
Frequent drought has emerged as the primary crisis in the Bundelkhand in recent years due to climate variation. It is essential to improve an early warning technique to predict the Bundelkhand drought. The latest generation global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) are the better sources for accurately predicting long-term climate. The models are frequently updated and improved by an international body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This study projects the future drought from 2021 to 2100 over Madhya Pradesh (MP) in Bundelkhand by using the two important drought indicators, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The study also found the non-parametric trend of projected drought on multi-scales (seasonal, non-seasonal, and annual). The increasing drought events for the RCP 4.5 scenario is observed as the carbon emission concentration is high until the year 2100. The rising trend of annual drought has been noticed over most of the MP in Bundelkhand. Besides, an insignificant trend has been observed on seasonal and monthly scales over the study region. The outcomes of the study will help policymakers for preparing drought alleviation and management strategies over the study region.
Projection of Drought Indices Trend over the Lower Bundelkhand Region in Central India
Frequent drought has emerged as the primary crisis in the Bundelkhand in recent years due to climate variation. It is essential to improve an early warning technique to predict the Bundelkhand drought. The latest generation global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) are the better sources for accurately predicting long-term climate. The models are frequently updated and improved by an international body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This study projects the future drought from 2021 to 2100 over Madhya Pradesh (MP) in Bundelkhand by using the two important drought indicators, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The study also found the non-parametric trend of projected drought on multi-scales (seasonal, non-seasonal, and annual). The increasing drought events for the RCP 4.5 scenario is observed as the carbon emission concentration is high until the year 2100. The rising trend of annual drought has been noticed over most of the MP in Bundelkhand. Besides, an insignificant trend has been observed on seasonal and monthly scales over the study region. The outcomes of the study will help policymakers for preparing drought alleviation and management strategies over the study region.
Projection of Drought Indices Trend over the Lower Bundelkhand Region in Central India
Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering
Pathak, Krishna Kant (editor) / Bandara, J. M. S. J. (editor) / Agrawal, Ramakant (editor) / Vishwakarma, A. (author) / Choudhary, M. K. (author) / Chauhan, M. S. (author)
International Conference on Recent Advances in Civil Engineering ; 2022
2023-10-03
10 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
Projection of Future Drought Characteristics under Multiple Drought Indices
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