A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Monte Carlo simulation of construction costs using subjective data: comment
This note supplements papers by Chau in an attempt to further the consideration of risk measures in forecasts of construction project costs. The note reviews the application of PERT-based aspects of analysis and simple portfolio theory. Consideration is given to subjective factors in cost forecasting which arise from the natures and experiences of the forecasters as well as pressures to which they (may) feel subjected. Alternative measures of risk exposure are examined and supplementary analyses of the data contained in Chau's paper are reported. Although the log-triangular distribution is confirmed as a superior means of measuring risk, the observed risk measures still exceed those calculated.
Monte Carlo simulation of construction costs using subjective data: comment
This note supplements papers by Chau in an attempt to further the consideration of risk measures in forecasts of construction project costs. The note reviews the application of PERT-based aspects of analysis and simple portfolio theory. Consideration is given to subjective factors in cost forecasting which arise from the natures and experiences of the forecasters as well as pressures to which they (may) feel subjected. Alternative measures of risk exposure are examined and supplementary analyses of the data contained in Chau's paper are reported. Although the log-triangular distribution is confirmed as a superior means of measuring risk, the observed risk measures still exceed those calculated.
Monte Carlo simulation of construction costs using subjective data: comment
Fellows, Richard (author)
Construction Management and Economics ; 14 ; 457-460
1996-09-01
4 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Monte Carlo simulation of construction costs using subjective data: Comment
| Online Contents | 1996
Monte Carlo simulation of construction costs using subjective data: comment
| British Library Online Contents | 1996
Monte Carlo simulation of construction costs using subjective data
| Taylor & Francis Verlag | 1995
Monte Carlo simulation of construction costs using subjective data
| Online Contents | 1995
Monte Carlo simulation of construction costs using subjective data
| British Library Online Contents | 1995