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Considering precipitation forecasts for real-time decision-making in hydropower operations
This paper presents a new decision-making strategy for hydropower operations to handle uncertainty of forecasting precipitation. This strategy takes into account three basic components: uncertainty of precipitation, operation policies and a risk-evaluation model. In real-time operation, precipitations with different probabilities at different forecasting levels are obtained, and these precipitations are applied to forecast inflows using a hydrological forecasting model. Based on the forecasting inflows, the operation policies and risks with different probabilities are obtained. This study implements China’s Huanren reservoir and medium-term precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecast System to study the efficiency and stability of this strategy.
Considering precipitation forecasts for real-time decision-making in hydropower operations
This paper presents a new decision-making strategy for hydropower operations to handle uncertainty of forecasting precipitation. This strategy takes into account three basic components: uncertainty of precipitation, operation policies and a risk-evaluation model. In real-time operation, precipitations with different probabilities at different forecasting levels are obtained, and these precipitations are applied to forecast inflows using a hydrological forecasting model. Based on the forecasting inflows, the operation policies and risks with different probabilities are obtained. This study implements China’s Huanren reservoir and medium-term precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecast System to study the efficiency and stability of this strategy.
Considering precipitation forecasts for real-time decision-making in hydropower operations
Peng, Yong (author) / Xu, Wei (author) / Liu, Bingbing (author)
International Journal of Water Resources Development ; 33 ; 987-1002
2017-11-02
16 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
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