A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Scenario construction for transport planning
This paper argues that the types of uncertainty having the most serious consequences for transport planning are not captured by existing modelling procedures, which typically rely on a limited amount of sensitivity testing of plans based on extrapolative forecasts. It recommends as an alternative scenario‐based planning, an approach which is finding increasing application in private sector policy formation. The paper summarises the origins of scenario planning and the gradual broadening in its range of application, before going on to suggest methods of scenario construction suitable for transport planning applications. It considers the arguments for and against associating probabilities with scenarios and also addresses the problems of formulating transport strategies and evaluating them within the context of a scenario‐based approach to strategy choice.
Scenario construction for transport planning
This paper argues that the types of uncertainty having the most serious consequences for transport planning are not captured by existing modelling procedures, which typically rely on a limited amount of sensitivity testing of plans based on extrapolative forecasts. It recommends as an alternative scenario‐based planning, an approach which is finding increasing application in private sector policy formation. The paper summarises the origins of scenario planning and the gradual broadening in its range of application, before going on to suggest methods of scenario construction suitable for transport planning applications. It considers the arguments for and against associating probabilities with scenarios and also addresses the problems of formulating transport strategies and evaluating them within the context of a scenario‐based approach to strategy choice.
Scenario construction for transport planning
Pearman, A. D. (author)
Transportation Planning and Technology ; 12 ; 73-85
1988-07-01
13 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
Scenario Planning for Strategic Regional Transportation Planning
| British Library Online Contents | 2004
Scenario Planning for Strategic Regional Transportation Planning
| Online Contents | 2004
Two scenario reality planning bibliographies
| TIBKAT | 1976
Transport policy scenario-building
| Taylor & Francis Verlag | 2003