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EXTRAPOLATION ERROR IN PEAK FLOODS FOR THE RIVERS GANGA AND YAMUNA
A reliable estimate of probable peak flood is not only essential for the safety of any hydraulic structure but also for the safety of lives and properties that are likely to-be affected by floods. The frequency analysis of annual peak flood is generally considered to be the best among the existing methods for flooding estimation if sufficient historical flood data are available. If the flood data are of shorter period, it is necessary to extrapolate the peak floods for required length of period which results in extrapolation error. Some of the references on the study of error caused by extrapolation are available. However, all the past investigators assumed a particular frequency distribution, which may not be representative for the flood data and hence the error due to assumed distribution of frequency might have crept in their analysis. The present study has been carried out to investigate the extrapolation error for the two major North Indian rivers Ganga and Yamuna after selecting the best fit frequency distribution for the flood data considered. It has been found that the truncated normal distribution is better for the data of Ganga and Yamuna while the flood data from other parts of India follow either two parameter or three parameter log-normal distribution. The error of extrapolation was not found to be increased appreciably with the extent of extrapolation. A reliable estimate of peak floods may be obtained within ±6 per cent error if the historical peak flood is of the order of 50 years.
EXTRAPOLATION ERROR IN PEAK FLOODS FOR THE RIVERS GANGA AND YAMUNA
A reliable estimate of probable peak flood is not only essential for the safety of any hydraulic structure but also for the safety of lives and properties that are likely to-be affected by floods. The frequency analysis of annual peak flood is generally considered to be the best among the existing methods for flooding estimation if sufficient historical flood data are available. If the flood data are of shorter period, it is necessary to extrapolate the peak floods for required length of period which results in extrapolation error. Some of the references on the study of error caused by extrapolation are available. However, all the past investigators assumed a particular frequency distribution, which may not be representative for the flood data and hence the error due to assumed distribution of frequency might have crept in their analysis. The present study has been carried out to investigate the extrapolation error for the two major North Indian rivers Ganga and Yamuna after selecting the best fit frequency distribution for the flood data considered. It has been found that the truncated normal distribution is better for the data of Ganga and Yamuna while the flood data from other parts of India follow either two parameter or three parameter log-normal distribution. The error of extrapolation was not found to be increased appreciably with the extent of extrapolation. A reliable estimate of peak floods may be obtained within ±6 per cent error if the historical peak flood is of the order of 50 years.
EXTRAPOLATION ERROR IN PEAK FLOODS FOR THE RIVERS GANGA AND YAMUNA
Jamil, Mohd. (author) / Ashhar, M. M. (author) / Muzzammil, M. (author) / Sharma, G. (author)
ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering ; 4 ; 16-23
1998-01-01
8 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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