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DYNAMIC VECTOR SIMULATION AND FORECASTING OF MONTHLY FLOWS
Planning of water resources can be conveniently made if forecasts of all monthly streamflows in a following year are made available to planners at the beginning of a rain year. This paper proposes a dynamic vector model to enable this. It is based on the Kalman Filter approach of forecasting. It takes into account the measurement as well as modelling errors, caters to the lag values as high as 23 months and also obviates the need to precisely specify the initial parameters. Analysis of different sets of monthly flow data indicated that the model satisfactorily simulates and forecasts 12-monthly streamflow values for a subsequent year. The model parameters are found to undergo steady convergence during their recursive estimation.
DYNAMIC VECTOR SIMULATION AND FORECASTING OF MONTHLY FLOWS
Planning of water resources can be conveniently made if forecasts of all monthly streamflows in a following year are made available to planners at the beginning of a rain year. This paper proposes a dynamic vector model to enable this. It is based on the Kalman Filter approach of forecasting. It takes into account the measurement as well as modelling errors, caters to the lag values as high as 23 months and also obviates the need to precisely specify the initial parameters. Analysis of different sets of monthly flow data indicated that the model satisfactorily simulates and forecasts 12-monthly streamflow values for a subsequent year. The model parameters are found to undergo steady convergence during their recursive estimation.
DYNAMIC VECTOR SIMULATION AND FORECASTING OF MONTHLY FLOWS
Wakdikar, M. P. (author) / Deo, M. C. (author)
ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering ; 5 ; 31-43
1999-01-01
13 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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