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Sequential selection of an optimal operating window
An important issue in construction, repair, maintenance, and testing is the ability to select an optimal window of opportunity within a short-term period of time. This optimal window is typically governed by external variables, such as weather, or affected by operational conditions. Therefore, a decision-maker faces sequential decisions to ‘start’ or to wait for ‘better’ conditions. We examine how this problem is best formulated, which optimisation criteria make sense from an engineering point of view, which kind of ‘stopping’ rules can be used, and which stochastic solutions or solution methods are known and/or available. We also discuss how discounting affects the decision-making and its outcome, as in many practical situations ‘waiting’ comes with an expensive price tag. The effect on the outcome of the selection process of assuming a simple dependence structure between the opportunities is also assessed. To illustrate the various formulations of this problem, we contrast different criteria and decision rules, assuming different scenarios.
Sequential selection of an optimal operating window
An important issue in construction, repair, maintenance, and testing is the ability to select an optimal window of opportunity within a short-term period of time. This optimal window is typically governed by external variables, such as weather, or affected by operational conditions. Therefore, a decision-maker faces sequential decisions to ‘start’ or to wait for ‘better’ conditions. We examine how this problem is best formulated, which optimisation criteria make sense from an engineering point of view, which kind of ‘stopping’ rules can be used, and which stochastic solutions or solution methods are known and/or available. We also discuss how discounting affects the decision-making and its outcome, as in many practical situations ‘waiting’ comes with an expensive price tag. The effect on the outcome of the selection process of assuming a simple dependence structure between the opportunities is also assessed. To illustrate the various formulations of this problem, we contrast different criteria and decision rules, assuming different scenarios.
Sequential selection of an optimal operating window
Maes, Marc A. (author) / Naess, Arvid (author)
Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems ; 30 ; 162-172
2013-06-01
11 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Sequential selection of an optimal operating window
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