A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Bayesian capacity model for hurricane vulnerability estimation
This paper uses a Bayesian capacity model to approximate the loss of low-rise buildings from hurricane damage. Many previous vulnerability models utilized components capacities using an analytical estimation composed with a statistical distribution of an error. In this paper, a Bayesian capacity model that combines physics-based analytical results with experimental results was used in the vulnerability estimation. The inclusion of analytical estimations can help to produce a more accurate fragility function when the amount of available data is limited. The Bayesian approach allows a proper treatment of model uncertainties and inherent uncertainties. The proposed approach provides a range of the fragility functions and their confidence intervals, which then is translated into upper and lower bounds in the vulnerability estimation. To demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach, the vulnerability of a wood-frame house was estimated using Bayesian capacity models of roof structural components and compared to a conventional vulnerability model. It was shown that not accounting for model uncertainty may result in an underestimation of the potential loss compared to the proposed Bayesian approach.
Bayesian capacity model for hurricane vulnerability estimation
This paper uses a Bayesian capacity model to approximate the loss of low-rise buildings from hurricane damage. Many previous vulnerability models utilized components capacities using an analytical estimation composed with a statistical distribution of an error. In this paper, a Bayesian capacity model that combines physics-based analytical results with experimental results was used in the vulnerability estimation. The inclusion of analytical estimations can help to produce a more accurate fragility function when the amount of available data is limited. The Bayesian approach allows a proper treatment of model uncertainties and inherent uncertainties. The proposed approach provides a range of the fragility functions and their confidence intervals, which then is translated into upper and lower bounds in the vulnerability estimation. To demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach, the vulnerability of a wood-frame house was estimated using Bayesian capacity models of roof structural components and compared to a conventional vulnerability model. It was shown that not accounting for model uncertainty may result in an underestimation of the potential loss compared to the proposed Bayesian approach.
Bayesian capacity model for hurricane vulnerability estimation
Kakareko, Grzegorz (author) / Jung, Sungmoon (author) / Mishra, Spandan (author) / Vanli, O. Arda (author)
Structure and Infrastructure Engineering ; 17 ; 638-648
2021-05-04
11 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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