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Water Demand Theory and Projections in South Africa
This study estimates Rand Water's water demand in South Africa for 2000 to 2020. It indicates lower growth in water consumption in the foreseeable future than in the past century. The reduced growth is due to: Economic slowdown (international and South African); Lower standard of living/residences for the “white” population; Corresponding decrease in formal business growth; Limitations of services in built up areas; Increased water costs; Improved loss control; HIV/Aids; Unwillingness of informal residents to contribute for services. This is offset by: Migration of poor to cities and creation of peri-urban growth; Increased standards for previously disadvantaged people; Improved health facilities; Growth in informal economy; New political freedom. A net growth of 2 percent annually is forecast. A statistical approach is adopted to obtain confidence limits for individual sectors. A decomposed demographic model is developed and used to predict water demand until 2020. A wider uncertainty in future consumption is foreseen. Conservative planning is recommended for future water resource projects, e.g. low capital, and operating intensive schemes are preferable. A methodology for planning in the face of uncertainty and low growth is developed.
Water Demand Theory and Projections in South Africa
This study estimates Rand Water's water demand in South Africa for 2000 to 2020. It indicates lower growth in water consumption in the foreseeable future than in the past century. The reduced growth is due to: Economic slowdown (international and South African); Lower standard of living/residences for the “white” population; Corresponding decrease in formal business growth; Limitations of services in built up areas; Increased water costs; Improved loss control; HIV/Aids; Unwillingness of informal residents to contribute for services. This is offset by: Migration of poor to cities and creation of peri-urban growth; Increased standards for previously disadvantaged people; Improved health facilities; Growth in informal economy; New political freedom. A net growth of 2 percent annually is forecast. A statistical approach is adopted to obtain confidence limits for individual sectors. A decomposed demographic model is developed and used to predict water demand until 2020. A wider uncertainty in future consumption is foreseen. Conservative planning is recommended for future water resource projects, e.g. low capital, and operating intensive schemes are preferable. A methodology for planning in the face of uncertainty and low growth is developed.
Water Demand Theory and Projections in South Africa
Stephenson, David (author) / Randell, Bruce (author)
Water International ; 28 ; 512-518
2003-12-01
7 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
consumption , demand , demography , population , projection , supply , water
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