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EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL IN MUMBAI REGION TO AID ESTIMATION OF SEVERE FLOOD
Assessment of risk from natural catastrophic events is essential for engineering and land use planning. In our country among many hazards, floods assume importance because of their recurring nature, and hence managing of floods is essential to prevent the losses to property and life. Though forecasts are issued for monsoon rains, large-scale variations in severe storms do occur. Moreover, catchment response in producing high magnitude floods is also not accurately predicted. In estimating severe flood, for ungauged basins, it is essential to estimate extreme rainfall (say 50-year, 100-year…return periods) of desired duration (hourly or daily) and estimate the resulting flood from it. This paper presents a methodology adopted in Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of rainfall for Mumbai region using maximum daily rainfall. Further, the maximum 1 day rainfall obtained for the 100 year return period is distributed over 24 hours of 1-hour duration adopting an appropriate storm (6 hourly) for the region, that could be used in estimating severe flood for the case under study. The probability distribution adopted in EVA is subjected to D-index Goodness of fit test. The Log Pearson Type III distribution is found to be best suited for EVA for the study region.
EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL IN MUMBAI REGION TO AID ESTIMATION OF SEVERE FLOOD
Assessment of risk from natural catastrophic events is essential for engineering and land use planning. In our country among many hazards, floods assume importance because of their recurring nature, and hence managing of floods is essential to prevent the losses to property and life. Though forecasts are issued for monsoon rains, large-scale variations in severe storms do occur. Moreover, catchment response in producing high magnitude floods is also not accurately predicted. In estimating severe flood, for ungauged basins, it is essential to estimate extreme rainfall (say 50-year, 100-year…return periods) of desired duration (hourly or daily) and estimate the resulting flood from it. This paper presents a methodology adopted in Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of rainfall for Mumbai region using maximum daily rainfall. Further, the maximum 1 day rainfall obtained for the 100 year return period is distributed over 24 hours of 1-hour duration adopting an appropriate storm (6 hourly) for the region, that could be used in estimating severe flood for the case under study. The probability distribution adopted in EVA is subjected to D-index Goodness of fit test. The Log Pearson Type III distribution is found to be best suited for EVA for the study region.
EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL IN MUMBAI REGION TO AID ESTIMATION OF SEVERE FLOOD
Ramesh, C. (author) / Vivekanandan, N. (author) / Surwade, K. B. (author) / Bapat, A. D. (author) / Govindan, S. (author) / Mathew, F. T. (author)
ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering ; 14 ; 102-117
2008-01-01
16 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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