A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Uncertainty analysis of risk-based flood safety standards in the Netherlands through a scenario-based approach
Flood risk quantification is a complex process involving a chain of models. The approach contains many uncertainties which accumulate in the calculated flood risk. Risk-based flood safety standards are therefore prone to large uncertainty. This study aims to quantify the uncertainty of risk-based flood safety standards for a Dutch riverine case study. Through a systematic approach using expert elicitation, the key uncertainty sources in the Dutch safety standard derivation are identified. Uncertainty magnitudes are quantified for five main sources of uncertainty, after which these uncertainties are propagated through the model chain in a scenario analysis to derive flood safety standards. The results show that the Dutch risk-based flood safety standards are highly uncertain given the relative uncertainty bandwidth of 70%. The flood safety standards are found to be most sensitive to damage function and evacuation uncertainty. Also, we show that the impact of uncertainty strongly depends on local characteristics.
Uncertainty analysis of risk-based flood safety standards in the Netherlands through a scenario-based approach
Flood risk quantification is a complex process involving a chain of models. The approach contains many uncertainties which accumulate in the calculated flood risk. Risk-based flood safety standards are therefore prone to large uncertainty. This study aims to quantify the uncertainty of risk-based flood safety standards for a Dutch riverine case study. Through a systematic approach using expert elicitation, the key uncertainty sources in the Dutch safety standard derivation are identified. Uncertainty magnitudes are quantified for five main sources of uncertainty, after which these uncertainties are propagated through the model chain in a scenario analysis to derive flood safety standards. The results show that the Dutch risk-based flood safety standards are highly uncertain given the relative uncertainty bandwidth of 70%. The flood safety standards are found to be most sensitive to damage function and evacuation uncertainty. Also, we show that the impact of uncertainty strongly depends on local characteristics.
Uncertainty analysis of risk-based flood safety standards in the Netherlands through a scenario-based approach
Westerhof, Sam G. (author) / Booij, Martijn J. (author) / Van den Berg, Marcel C. J. (author) / Huting, Ric J. M. (author) / Warmink, Jord J. (author)
International Journal of River Basin Management ; 21 ; 559-574
2023-07-03
16 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Risk-based safety standards and safety assessment tools in the Netherlands
| BASE | 2018
Risk-based safety standards and safety assessment tools in the Netherlands
| HENRY – Federal Waterways Engineering and Research Institute (BAW) | 2018
Flood risk assessment in The Netherlands
| British Library Conference Proceedings | 2003
Scenario‐based extreme flood risk analysis of Xiong'an New Area in northern China
| DOAJ | 2021
Scenario‐based extreme flood risk analysis of Xiong'an New Area in northern China
| Wiley | 2021