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Estimation of the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in Swaziland
The enhanced greenhouse gas effect is expected to cause high temperature increases globally (1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius), and this will lead to an increase in precipitation in some regions while other regions will experience reduced precipitation. Therefore, countries are engaged in the exercise of evaluating the impact of expected climate change on water resources using General Circulation Models (GCM) and hydrologic models. The WatBall model has been found appropriate for the evaluation of the impact of climate on water resources. The Usutu catchment was selected for the evaluation of the impact of climate change on water resources because it covers two thirds of Swaziland and traverses the four physiographic regions. The results of GCM models (precipitation, temperature, and, thus, potential evapotranspiration) have been used as input to the calibrated WatBall model to forecast streamflow for Usutu catchment for the wet, dry, and average annual conditions for the year 2075. Without taking into consideration population increase and expanded agricultural activities, a comparison between observed and simulated streamflow reveals that all the GCM models are simulating low flows from June to September for the wet years and from May to September for the dry and normal years. The effect of population increase on water resources under climate change has revealed that all the GCM models simulate a water deficit for the winter months (May to September). What can be concluded here is that streamflows will be low during the winter months and the population increase will cause water shortages during the winter months. Therefore, optimal water resources management will be crucial. Adaptation options have been suggested and range from modification of the existing infrastructure to water demand management.
Estimation of the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in Swaziland
The enhanced greenhouse gas effect is expected to cause high temperature increases globally (1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius), and this will lead to an increase in precipitation in some regions while other regions will experience reduced precipitation. Therefore, countries are engaged in the exercise of evaluating the impact of expected climate change on water resources using General Circulation Models (GCM) and hydrologic models. The WatBall model has been found appropriate for the evaluation of the impact of climate on water resources. The Usutu catchment was selected for the evaluation of the impact of climate change on water resources because it covers two thirds of Swaziland and traverses the four physiographic regions. The results of GCM models (precipitation, temperature, and, thus, potential evapotranspiration) have been used as input to the calibrated WatBall model to forecast streamflow for Usutu catchment for the wet, dry, and average annual conditions for the year 2075. Without taking into consideration population increase and expanded agricultural activities, a comparison between observed and simulated streamflow reveals that all the GCM models are simulating low flows from June to September for the wet years and from May to September for the dry and normal years. The effect of population increase on water resources under climate change has revealed that all the GCM models simulate a water deficit for the winter months (May to September). What can be concluded here is that streamflows will be low during the winter months and the population increase will cause water shortages during the winter months. Therefore, optimal water resources management will be crucial. Adaptation options have been suggested and range from modification of the existing infrastructure to water demand management.
Estimation of the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in Swaziland
Matondo, Jonathan I. (author) / Msibi, Kenneth M. (author)
Water International ; 26 ; 425-434
2001-09-01
10 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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