Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Using the mathematics of random variables, a procedure is developed for calculating the variance of the total estimate of project cost. Input consists of three-value estimates of the individual budget work items. Correlation among work items is shown to produce a significant part of total variance. Although the assumed probability function of the input affects the transformation of the three-value estimates into means and variances, the form of the output is approximately normal. Contingency can be related to the standard deviation of the estimate, but it is shown that the results can be inconsistent with reality. A simplified technique for these calculations is suggested.
Using the mathematics of random variables, a procedure is developed for calculating the variance of the total estimate of project cost. Input consists of three-value estimates of the individual budget work items. Correlation among work items is shown to produce a significant part of total variance. Although the assumed probability function of the input affects the transformation of the three-value estimates into means and variances, the form of the output is approximately normal. Contingency can be related to the standard deviation of the estimate, but it is shown that the results can be inconsistent with reality. A simplified technique for these calculations is suggested.
Probabilistic Estimating
Spooner, James E. (Autor:in)
Journal of the Construction Division ; 100 ; 65-77
01.01.2021
131974-01-01 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Unbekannt
Erratum for “Probabilistic Estimating”
ASCE | 2021
Tunnel Estimating by Probabilistic Scheduling
| British Library Conference Proceedings | 2003
Probabilistic models for estimating lithology
| Online Contents | 1998
Probabilistic models for estimating lithology
| British Library Online Contents | 1997
Probabilistic Cost Estimating with Subjective Correlations
| British Library Online Contents | 1993