Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Probabilistic Projection of Mean Sea Level and Coastal Extremes
Fundamental uncertainties governing sea level rise projections are associated with the rate of acceleration in global sea level rise and the local factors affecting relative sea level. Recent models and observations of global ice sheets and their contributions to sea level, as well as climate models, suggest that significant sea level acceleration is imminent, yet observational data from tide gauges and satellites have not yet found rates consistent with some of the projections. To allow coastal planners a way to incorporate the uncertainties of acceleration, a synthesis of observed sea level data with selected distributions of acceleration and the current rate of rise is proposed to provide probabilistic estimates of future sea levels. The resulting distributions can be adopted in a risk-based framework to assess project vulnerability. As geophysical understanding of the climate-forced sea level dynamics improves, the selection and veracity of these distributions and their sea level projections will improve. As a case study, the methodology is demonstrated by application in Key West in southern Florida.
Probabilistic Projection of Mean Sea Level and Coastal Extremes
Fundamental uncertainties governing sea level rise projections are associated with the rate of acceleration in global sea level rise and the local factors affecting relative sea level. Recent models and observations of global ice sheets and their contributions to sea level, as well as climate models, suggest that significant sea level acceleration is imminent, yet observational data from tide gauges and satellites have not yet found rates consistent with some of the projections. To allow coastal planners a way to incorporate the uncertainties of acceleration, a synthesis of observed sea level data with selected distributions of acceleration and the current rate of rise is proposed to provide probabilistic estimates of future sea levels. The resulting distributions can be adopted in a risk-based framework to assess project vulnerability. As geophysical understanding of the climate-forced sea level dynamics improves, the selection and veracity of these distributions and their sea level projections will improve. As a case study, the methodology is demonstrated by application in Key West in southern Florida.
Probabilistic Projection of Mean Sea Level and Coastal Extremes
Obeysekera, Jayantha (Autor:in) / Park, Joseph (Autor:in) / Irizarry-Ortiz, Michelle (Autor:in) / Barnes, Jenifer (Autor:in) / Trimble, Paul (Autor:in)
Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering ; 139 ; 135-141
29.03.2012
72013-01-01 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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