Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
The recent study by Anadón et al (2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 034020) employs multiple expert elicitation to study the potential impact of public RD&D on nuclear power costs through 2030. This study achieves a rare depth and variation in multiple expert elicitation on the same problem, which allows the authors to carefully identify expert-level drivers of variations in assessments of outcomes and associated uncertainties. An important parameter—change in the future costs of nuclear fission technologies upon doubling of public RD&D—is also calculated. Overall, this study makes a significant contribution to both the decision-making under uncertainty literature focusing on technological change as well as the expert elicitation methodology literature.
The recent study by Anadón et al (2013 Environ. Res. Lett. 8 034020) employs multiple expert elicitation to study the potential impact of public RD&D on nuclear power costs through 2030. This study achieves a rare depth and variation in multiple expert elicitation on the same problem, which allows the authors to carefully identify expert-level drivers of variations in assessments of outcomes and associated uncertainties. An important parameter—change in the future costs of nuclear fission technologies upon doubling of public RD&D—is also calculated. Overall, this study makes a significant contribution to both the decision-making under uncertainty literature focusing on technological change as well as the expert elicitation methodology literature.
Expert elicitation methods for studying technological change under uncertainty
Varun Rai (Autor:in)
2013
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Unbekannt
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Expert elicitation methods for studying technological change under uncertainty
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