Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Eine Plattform für die Wissenschaft: Bauingenieurwesen, Architektur und Urbanistik
Subjective Reliability Assessment in Geotechnical Engineering: I-95 Embankment Case Study
The paper presents and analyzes the results of a questionnaire distributed at a recent symposium at M.I.T. at which ten well-known geotechnical engineers were invited to predict, in advance of construction, the settlement and the height to failure of an embankment. The questionnaire was designed to elicit from each predictor a judgement about the quality of his prediction, i.e., about the expected magnitude of the difference between actual and predicted performance. Another part of the paper identifies the errors commonly committed in quantifying judgements about the quality of predictions, shows how these errors are in evidence in the data acquired at the symposium, and examines procedures for updating information with a view toward improving the prediction process.
Subjective Reliability Assessment in Geotechnical Engineering: I-95 Embankment Case Study
The paper presents and analyzes the results of a questionnaire distributed at a recent symposium at M.I.T. at which ten well-known geotechnical engineers were invited to predict, in advance of construction, the settlement and the height to failure of an embankment. The questionnaire was designed to elicit from each predictor a judgement about the quality of his prediction, i.e., about the expected magnitude of the difference between actual and predicted performance. Another part of the paper identifies the errors commonly committed in quantifying judgements about the quality of predictions, shows how these errors are in evidence in the data acquired at the symposium, and examines procedures for updating information with a view toward improving the prediction process.
Subjective Reliability Assessment in Geotechnical Engineering: I-95 Embankment Case Study
M. E. Hynes (Autor:in) / E. H. Vanmarcke (Autor:in)
1975
42 pages
Report
Keine Angabe
Englisch
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