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Monte Carlo Simulation Approach for the Probability Distribution of Project Performance Functions

Damnjanovic, Ivan / Reinschmidt, Kenneth

Abstract In this chapter we discuss the implementation of Monte Carlo simulation evaluating of project performance functions such as the total project cost and the total project duration. We focus on the key considerations that are often ignored when Monte Carlo simulation is implemented in project risk analysis – the effect of correlation and the sample size selection. Further, we provide the methods to determine if the correlation matrix is positive-semi definite, if not, how to fix it. Finally we show the method to evaluate the effect of sample size on the confidence intervals of decision variables.

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Monte Carlo Simulation Approach for the Probability Distribution of Project Performance Functions

Damnjanovic, Ivan / Reinschmidt, Kenneth

Abstract In this chapter we discuss the implementation of Monte Carlo simulation evaluating of project performance functions such as the total project cost and the total project duration. We focus on the key considerations that are often ignored when Monte Carlo simulation is implemented in project risk analysis – the effect of correlation and the sample size selection. Further, we provide the methods to determine if the correlation matrix is positive-semi definite, if not, how to fix it. Finally we show the method to evaluate the effect of sample size on the confidence intervals of decision variables.

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach for the Probability Distribution of Project Performance Functions

Damnjanovic, Ivan / Reinschmidt, Kenneth

Abstract In this chapter we discuss the implementation of Monte Carlo simulation evaluating of project performance functions such as the total project cost and the total project duration. We focus on the key considerations that are often ignored when Monte Carlo simulation is implemented in project risk analysis – the effect of correlation and the sample size selection. Further, we provide the methods to determine if the correlation matrix is positive-semi definite, if not, how to fix it. Finally we show the method to evaluate the effect of sample size on the confidence intervals of decision variables.

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Titel:

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach for the Probability Distribution of Project Performance Functions

Beteiligte:

Damnjanovic, Ivan (Autor:in) / Reinschmidt, Kenneth (Autor:in)

Erschienen in:

Data Analytics for Engineering and Construction Project Risk Management ; 65-80

Risk, Systems and Decisions

Erscheinungsdatum:

24.05.2019

Format / Umfang:

16 pages

ISBN:

978-3-030-14251-3 , 978-3-030-14250-6

ISSN:

2626-6717 , 2626-6725

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14251-3_4

Medientyp:

Aufsatz/Kapitel (Buch)

Format:

Elektronische Ressource

Sprache:

Englisch

Schlagwörter:

Monte Carlo simulation , Correlated random variates , Sample size , Confidence intervals Engineering , Construction Management , Quality Control, Reliability, Safety and Risk , Project Management

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