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Spatiality in Hazard Models for European Windstorms
The risk of aggregated losses from natural catastrophes (NatCat) is quantified using NatCat models, for example, in the (re)insurance industry. NatCat models’ hazard modules contain a catalog of stochastic events. Their spatiality means spatial expansion and spatial correlation, and should adequately reflect reality. For European windstorms (extratropical cyclones, also known as winter storms), the spatiality of such models is relatively often validated and calibrated by applying an area-weighted storm intensity index (SSI) or its exceedance frequency curve. Using a constructed stochastic example based on spatial extreme value statistics, this study found that the same SSI curves are not a sufficient criterion for adequate spatial modeling and spatial correlation. Equal SSI curves do not necessarily imply equal spatial correlation and risk curves. Therefore, spatial correlation in models should be explicitly validated and calibrated. The complexity of the actual spatial correlation of European storms was illustrated using the example of Germany. The rare research on the spatial correlation of European storms is discussed briefly.
Spatiality in Hazard Models for European Windstorms
The risk of aggregated losses from natural catastrophes (NatCat) is quantified using NatCat models, for example, in the (re)insurance industry. NatCat models’ hazard modules contain a catalog of stochastic events. Their spatiality means spatial expansion and spatial correlation, and should adequately reflect reality. For European windstorms (extratropical cyclones, also known as winter storms), the spatiality of such models is relatively often validated and calibrated by applying an area-weighted storm intensity index (SSI) or its exceedance frequency curve. Using a constructed stochastic example based on spatial extreme value statistics, this study found that the same SSI curves are not a sufficient criterion for adequate spatial modeling and spatial correlation. Equal SSI curves do not necessarily imply equal spatial correlation and risk curves. Therefore, spatial correlation in models should be explicitly validated and calibrated. The complexity of the actual spatial correlation of European storms was illustrated using the example of Germany. The rare research on the spatial correlation of European storms is discussed briefly.
Spatiality in Hazard Models for European Windstorms
Nat. Hazards Rev.
Raschke, Mathias (author)
2025-05-01
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Buildings and tropical windstorms
| TIBKAT | 1981
Buildings and tropical windstorms
| TIBKAT | 1981
| Online Contents | 2012
| SAGE Publications | 2012