A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Uncertainty in Task Duration and Cost Estimates: Fusion of Probabilistic Forecasts and Deterministic Scheduling
A model for project budgeting and scheduling with uncertainty is developed. The traditional critical-path method (CPM) misleads because there are few, if any, real-life deterministic situations for which CPM is a great match; program evaluation and review technique (PERT) has been seen to have its problems, too (e.g., merge bias, unavailability of data, difficulty of implementation by practitioners). A dual focus on the distributions of the possible errors in the time and cost estimates and on the reliability of the estimates used as planned values suggests an approach for developing reliable schedules and budgets with buffers for time and cost. This method for budgeting and scheduling is executed through either simulation or a simple analytical approximation. The dynamic buffers provide much-needed flexibility, accounting for the errors in cost and duration estimates associated with planning any real project, thus providing a realistic, practical, and dynamic approach to planning and scheduling.
Uncertainty in Task Duration and Cost Estimates: Fusion of Probabilistic Forecasts and Deterministic Scheduling
A model for project budgeting and scheduling with uncertainty is developed. The traditional critical-path method (CPM) misleads because there are few, if any, real-life deterministic situations for which CPM is a great match; program evaluation and review technique (PERT) has been seen to have its problems, too (e.g., merge bias, unavailability of data, difficulty of implementation by practitioners). A dual focus on the distributions of the possible errors in the time and cost estimates and on the reliability of the estimates used as planned values suggests an approach for developing reliable schedules and budgets with buffers for time and cost. This method for budgeting and scheduling is executed through either simulation or a simple analytical approximation. The dynamic buffers provide much-needed flexibility, accounting for the errors in cost and duration estimates associated with planning any real project, thus providing a realistic, practical, and dynamic approach to planning and scheduling.
Uncertainty in Task Duration and Cost Estimates: Fusion of Probabilistic Forecasts and Deterministic Scheduling
Khamooshi, Homayoun (author) / Cioffi, Denis F. (author)
Journal of Construction Engineering and Management ; 139 ; 488-497
2012-07-24
102013-01-01 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
| British Library Online Contents | 2013
Tunnel construction time and cost estimates: from deterministic to probabilistic approaches
| BASE | 2013
Probabilistic Optimal-Cost Scheduling
| Online Contents | 2001
Probabilistic Optimal-Cost Scheduling
| British Library Online Contents | 2001