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Future scenarios and life cycle assessment:systematic review and recommendations
Purpose Future scenarios and life cycle assessment (LCA) are powerful tools that can provide early sustainability assessments of novel products, technologies and systems. The combination of the two methods involves practical and conceptual challenges, but formal guidance and consensus on a rigorous approach are currently missing. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how different topic areas use future scenarios and LCA in order to identify useful methods and approaches, and to provide overall recommendations. Methods This study carried out a systematic literature review that involved searching for peer-reviewed articles on Web of Science, Scopus and Science Direct, utilising a rigorous set of keywords for future scenarios and for LCA. We identified 514 suitable peer-reviewed articles that were systematically analysed according to pre-defined sets of characteristics for the combined modelling of future scenarios and LCA. Results and discussion The numbers of studies combining future scenarios and LCA increase every year and in all of the 15 topic areas identified. This combination is highly complex, due to different sequences in the modelling between future scenarios and LCA, the use of additional models and topic area-specific challenges. We identify and classify studies according to three archetypal modelling sequences: input, output and hybrid. More than 100 studies provide methods and approaches for combining future scenarios and LCA, but existing recommendations are specific to topic areas and for modelling sequences, and consensus is still missing. The efficacy of many studies is hampered by lack of quality. Only half of the articles complied with the LCA ISO standards, and only one quarter demonstrated consistent knowledge of future scenario theory. We observed inconsistent use of terminology and a considerable lack of clarity in the descriptions of methodological choices, assumptions and time frames. Conclusions and Recommendations The combined use of future scenarios and LCA requires formal ...
Future scenarios and life cycle assessment:systematic review and recommendations
Purpose Future scenarios and life cycle assessment (LCA) are powerful tools that can provide early sustainability assessments of novel products, technologies and systems. The combination of the two methods involves practical and conceptual challenges, but formal guidance and consensus on a rigorous approach are currently missing. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how different topic areas use future scenarios and LCA in order to identify useful methods and approaches, and to provide overall recommendations. Methods This study carried out a systematic literature review that involved searching for peer-reviewed articles on Web of Science, Scopus and Science Direct, utilising a rigorous set of keywords for future scenarios and for LCA. We identified 514 suitable peer-reviewed articles that were systematically analysed according to pre-defined sets of characteristics for the combined modelling of future scenarios and LCA. Results and discussion The numbers of studies combining future scenarios and LCA increase every year and in all of the 15 topic areas identified. This combination is highly complex, due to different sequences in the modelling between future scenarios and LCA, the use of additional models and topic area-specific challenges. We identify and classify studies according to three archetypal modelling sequences: input, output and hybrid. More than 100 studies provide methods and approaches for combining future scenarios and LCA, but existing recommendations are specific to topic areas and for modelling sequences, and consensus is still missing. The efficacy of many studies is hampered by lack of quality. Only half of the articles complied with the LCA ISO standards, and only one quarter demonstrated consistent knowledge of future scenario theory. We observed inconsistent use of terminology and a considerable lack of clarity in the descriptions of methodological choices, assumptions and time frames. Conclusions and Recommendations The combined use of future scenarios and LCA requires formal ...
Future scenarios and life cycle assessment:systematic review and recommendations
Bisinella, V. (author) / Christensen, T. H. (author) / Astrup, T. F. (author)
2021-01-01
Bisinella , V , Christensen , T H & Astrup , T F 2021 , ' Future scenarios and life cycle assessment : systematic review and recommendations ' , International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment , vol. 26 , pp. 2143–2170 . https://doi.org/10.1007/s11367-021-01954-6
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Archetypes , /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/affordable_and_clean_energy , Life cycle assessment , /dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/responsible_consumption_and_production , Prospective , Foresight , name=SDG 12 - Responsible Consumption and Production , LCA , name=SDG 7 - Affordable and Clean Energy , Ex-ante , Future scenarios
DDC:
710
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