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Neglect Of Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Can Significantly Overestimate Structural Reliability
Parameter estimation uncertainty is often neglected in reliability studies, i.e. point estimates of distribution parameters are used for representative fractiles, and in probabilistic models. A numerical example examines the effect of this uncertainty on structural reliability using Bayesian statistics. The study reveals that the neglect of parameter estimation uncertainty might lead to an order of magnitude underestimation of failure probability.
Neglect Of Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Can Significantly Overestimate Structural Reliability
Parameter estimation uncertainty is often neglected in reliability studies, i.e. point estimates of distribution parameters are used for representative fractiles, and in probabilistic models. A numerical example examines the effect of this uncertainty on structural reliability using Bayesian statistics. The study reveals that the neglect of parameter estimation uncertainty might lead to an order of magnitude underestimation of failure probability.
Neglect Of Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Can Significantly Overestimate Structural Reliability
Rózsás Árpád (author) / Sýkora Miroslav (author)
2015
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
Unknown
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| BASE | 2021
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| Springer Verlag | 1983