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Data Needs for Improved Seismic Hazard Analysis
Abstract Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) attempts to predict the occurrence rates of various ground motion parameters, and is therefore potentially verifiable. At very low probabilities, features that might bound past ground motions, such as surviving precarious rocks, often seem to be inconsistent with the predictions. The PSHA predictions at small probabilities are very sensitive to the way uncertainties are handled. One challenge is to separate uncertainties into their aleatory and epistemic components, which currently are mingled due to making an ergodic assumption when ground motion prediction equations are developed. At Lovejoy Buttes, California, there are several precarious rocks that have not been toppled by about 10,000 years of earthquakes. This paper shows a formal way to evaluate whether a particular probability distribution for peak acceleration from the largest earthquakes, M∼8 events on the nearby San Andreas fault, is consistent with existence of those rocks. The paper concludes with suggested data needs from strong motion observations, since the solution to these PSHA issues will ultimately be driven by new data.
Data Needs for Improved Seismic Hazard Analysis
Abstract Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) attempts to predict the occurrence rates of various ground motion parameters, and is therefore potentially verifiable. At very low probabilities, features that might bound past ground motions, such as surviving precarious rocks, often seem to be inconsistent with the predictions. The PSHA predictions at small probabilities are very sensitive to the way uncertainties are handled. One challenge is to separate uncertainties into their aleatory and epistemic components, which currently are mingled due to making an ergodic assumption when ground motion prediction equations are developed. At Lovejoy Buttes, California, there are several precarious rocks that have not been toppled by about 10,000 years of earthquakes. This paper shows a formal way to evaluate whether a particular probability distribution for peak acceleration from the largest earthquakes, M∼8 events on the nearby San Andreas fault, is consistent with existence of those rocks. The paper concludes with suggested data needs from strong motion observations, since the solution to these PSHA issues will ultimately be driven by new data.
Data Needs for Improved Seismic Hazard Analysis
Anderson, John G. (author) / Brune, James N. (author) / Anooshehpoor, Abdolrasool (author) / Purvance, Matthew D. (author)
2005-01-01
24 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
Earthquakes , hazard , seismic hazard analysis , strong-motion , accelerographs , precarious rocks , ground motion prediction , attenuation Engineering , Building Construction , Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences , Geophysics/Geodesy , Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences , Structural Mechanics , Civil Engineering
Data Needs for Improved Seismic Hazard Analysis
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