A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Elicitation of subjective probabilities for economic risk analysis: An investigation
This paper investigates three major issues regarding the elicitation of expert knowledge for economic risk analysis: (1) recognition of some of the implicit assumptions and beliefs; (2) development of an approach to elicit expert knowledge as accurate, calibrated and coherent subjective probabilities; and (3)a study to explore human ability to predict future events and the validity of the implicit assumptions and beliefs in the context of the expert judgements. The proposed elicitation approach combines the theoretical requirements for valid subjective probabilities with a practical process. The recognition that some of the implicit assumptions and beliefs in engineering risk analysis should be explored when dealing with the human ability to predict future events, and the inherent difficulties in developing experiments and methods to test such beliefs arc some of the benefits of the study. Directions for future work are suggested.
Elicitation of subjective probabilities for economic risk analysis: An investigation
This paper investigates three major issues regarding the elicitation of expert knowledge for economic risk analysis: (1) recognition of some of the implicit assumptions and beliefs; (2) development of an approach to elicit expert knowledge as accurate, calibrated and coherent subjective probabilities; and (3)a study to explore human ability to predict future events and the validity of the implicit assumptions and beliefs in the context of the expert judgements. The proposed elicitation approach combines the theoretical requirements for valid subjective probabilities with a practical process. The recognition that some of the implicit assumptions and beliefs in engineering risk analysis should be explored when dealing with the human ability to predict future events, and the inherent difficulties in developing experiments and methods to test such beliefs arc some of the benefits of the study. Directions for future work are suggested.
Elicitation of subjective probabilities for economic risk analysis: An investigation
Ranasinghe, Malik (author) / Russell, Alan D. (author)
Construction Management and Economics ; 11 ; 326-340
1993-09-01
15 pages
Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Elicitation of subjective probabilities for economic risk analysis: An investigation
| Online Contents | 1993
Elicitation of subjective probabilities for economic risk analysis: An investigation
| British Library Online Contents | 1993
| Wiley | 2011
Levee performance evaluation based on subjective probabilities
| Taylor & Francis Verlag | 2013
Subjective probabilities for earthquake damage and loss
| Elsevier | 1985