A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
A platform for research: civil engineering, architecture and urbanism
Risk Elicitation
This chapter describes the most damaging biases that may affect the RBE results. Risk elicitation is the part of the cost estimating process where the distinction is made between a deterministic estimate and a risk‐based estimate. It is essential to develop an understanding of how the concepts of elicitation and cognitive bias influence decision making within the context of the analysis and quantification of risk. The chapter presents three formats for the elicitation or risks as well as the cognitive biases that affects them. It provides a discussion of the techniques and considerations for the elicitation of risk impacts and probabilities. Risk conditionality relates to two main risk characteristics such as probability of occurrence and impact. The quality of the risk assessment depends on the knowledge of the SMEs and the methods used during the risk elicitation process.
Risk Elicitation
This chapter describes the most damaging biases that may affect the RBE results. Risk elicitation is the part of the cost estimating process where the distinction is made between a deterministic estimate and a risk‐based estimate. It is essential to develop an understanding of how the concepts of elicitation and cognitive bias influence decision making within the context of the analysis and quantification of risk. The chapter presents three formats for the elicitation or risks as well as the cognitive biases that affects them. It provides a discussion of the techniques and considerations for the elicitation of risk impacts and probabilities. Risk conditionality relates to two main risk characteristics such as probability of occurrence and impact. The quality of the risk assessment depends on the knowledge of the SMEs and the methods used during the risk elicitation process.
Risk Elicitation
Cretu, Ovidiu (author) / Stewart, Robert (author) / Berends, Terry (author)
2011-05-27
40 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
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