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Debris-Flow Hazard Assessment and Model Validation, Medano Fire, Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, Colorado
A debris-flow hazard assessment was conducted for the Medano Creek Watershed, at Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, in response to the 2010 Medano Fire that burned approximately 24 square kilometers (6,000 acres) in and around the Preserve. Debris-flow probability and volume predictions were made using four empirical regression models and geographic information system (GIS) data and tools. Model parameters include burn severity, rainfall intensity, topographic characteristics, and soil properties. Data was collected and analyzed on the basin scale from burned tributaries of Medano Creek. Model results provided the Park's resource managers with information on potential basin-specific hazards to roads, campsites, and park visitors. Monitoring of the first significant rainfall events following the fire and the resulting debris-flow responses throughout the spring, summer, and fall of 2011 provided means for model validation. Of the three probability models utilized, two predicted the high probability of debris flow occurrence for all basins that produced debris flows, with numerous false positives, while the third failed to predict the high probability in any of the basins. The volume model predicted volumes within approximately one order of magnitude higher than those measured.
Debris-Flow Hazard Assessment and Model Validation, Medano Fire, Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, Colorado
A debris-flow hazard assessment was conducted for the Medano Creek Watershed, at Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, in response to the 2010 Medano Fire that burned approximately 24 square kilometers (6,000 acres) in and around the Preserve. Debris-flow probability and volume predictions were made using four empirical regression models and geographic information system (GIS) data and tools. Model parameters include burn severity, rainfall intensity, topographic characteristics, and soil properties. Data was collected and analyzed on the basin scale from burned tributaries of Medano Creek. Model results provided the Park's resource managers with information on potential basin-specific hazards to roads, campsites, and park visitors. Monitoring of the first significant rainfall events following the fire and the resulting debris-flow responses throughout the spring, summer, and fall of 2011 provided means for model validation. Of the three probability models utilized, two predicted the high probability of debris flow occurrence for all basins that produced debris flows, with numerous false positives, while the third failed to predict the high probability in any of the basins. The volume model predicted volumes within approximately one order of magnitude higher than those measured.
Debris-Flow Hazard Assessment and Model Validation, Medano Fire, Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve, Colorado
Friedman, Evan (author) / Santi, Paul (author)
Biennial Geotechical Seminar 2012 ; 2012 ; Denver, Colorado, United States
GeoChallenges ; 17-36
2012-11-09
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
| British Library Online Contents | 2014